The Refutation

Refutations

The graveyard

How to tell a real edge from a mirage: plain-English autopsies of the strategies everyone repeats — and the failure modes that fool everyone else. Education and data-journalism only; never signals or advice.

The autopsy

Supertrend, flipped to death: the most-taught indicator on the internet

The internet's number-one beginner indicator, traded exactly as taught over 1,239 flips. It lost 92.9% while buy and hold gained 940%, and a coin flip at the same cadence did no worse.
The autopsy

We tested the 50/100 MA ribbon 55 different ways over five years

The popular EMA colour-flip, run 55 ways across five years of BTC and ETH. Every configuration lost money; the fee wall and the whipsaw did the killing.
The autopsy

MACD: the indicator is a passenger

Four predictions written before a single test, 320 tuned variants, three complete systems through regime cross-validation. Every signal failed; the filter was driving.
The autopsy

Overbought is not a sell signal

The RSI 70/30 rule is trading's most repeated pattern. We measured what price does after every signal, across four assets and six timeframes. There's no edge.
The autopsy

Did the golden cross lose its shine?

Finance's most famous signal, tested out-of-sample across six timeframes and six market regimes. It doesn't survive.